Economic review of Tinubu policies: an objective standpoint

President Bola Tinubu made it very clear in his inauguration speech on May 29, 2023, that his administration wanted to alter the commercial environment in the country.

The president emphasized that for his administration to fulfil his pledge to create one million new jobs in the digital sector, as outlined in his 80-page manifesto, “A Renewed Hope: Action Plan for a Better Nigeria”, it must provide Nigerian youths with genuine opportunities. This manifesto was seen as the main premise for his campaign. But the question every Nigerian is asking is whether the renewed hope was an irony of renewed hardship, as seen under President Buhari.

While the president claims that these measures will completely transform Nigeria’s economic environment by addressing long-standing issues and fostering expansion,  the real question one will ask is: how well have they performed in the last year to accomplish these lofty goals? 

As we move on to delve into the realities of this, we will know if Tinubu’s economic policies can significantly improve and alter Nigeria’s financial status as he has proposed in his manifesto.

 We shall closely study his economic policies, look at each strategy, the rationale behind them, projected advantages, and related difficulties and current situations. The goal is to make clear how these activities may impact the future of Nigeria’s economy. 

This article seeks to review the economic policies of this present administration objectively.

1. Fuel subsidy removal

The first on President Bola Tinubu’s list of 2023 economic reforms was the elimination of the fuel subsidy. According to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Tinubu said that the gasoline subsidy regime was over, eliminating the long-standing fuel subsidy and raising the pump price of fuel by more than 152%. However, the economy has been significantly impacted by the reforms which were implemented less than a month after they took office. and the effects are seen in terms of astronomical inflation and exchange rates.

Of course, it could be argued that fuel subsidy was a corrupt scam, set up to enrich some political elites, but it would have benefited the masses if it wasn’t the other way.

It is so unfortunate that what seemed to be an aid to every Nigerian turned out to enrich only a selected few.

How could it be justified that the fuel that was being subsidized for the marketers to sell to her citizens, ended up in other nations?

It is a massive corrupt scheme, not only by the marketer alone but in collaboration with government officials.

However one will also argue that the removal of fuel subsidy was ill executed. 

The proponent of this claim suggests that it ought to have been phased out, and not removed instantly, because this has caused deep shock waves in the lives of many, who couldn’t withstand the immediate effect of the removals 

as of 22, August 2023, a litre of PMS was sold for a thousand naira in some quarters.

Objectively, the fuel subsidy removal ought not to be as sudden as it was. There ought to have been a measure put in place to absorb the effects, and it could also have been in a gradual procession.

Note: It seems this policy is being reversed.

2. Naira unification

Here came the floating of the exchange rate, causing the unification of the naira between the parallel market and the official market price.

By creating a more stable and open foreign exchange environment, this policy aims to avoid market distortions, unify the currency rate, and draw in international investment. The previous system was thought to be ineffective since it encouraged capital flight and provided chances for arbitrage. 

Making the switch to a market-driven exchange rate should improve openness and lessen problems with rent-seeking and corruption, which were common in the previous system. Furthermore, by accurately representing the value of the naira, a more accurate exchange rate might increase the competitiveness of Nigerian exports, thereby increasing non-oil exports.  

But again, the outcome was an almost 200% depreciation of the naira against the US dollar. The economy has been greatly impacted by the naira’s floating, especially inflation. Because of the headline inflation rate of roughly 33.6%, Nigerians must now pay more for necessities and commodities.

Furthermore, food inflation, which is currently above 40%, puts further strain on the average person’s purchasing capacity. 

Living in Nigeria is getting harder and harder, and the price of necessities is going to an all-time high. Food costs have significantly increased as a result of the decision to float the naira and the sudden elimination of gasoline subsidies.

Families and individuals are facing serious difficulties as a result of the increase in food prices. Because food prices are always rising, households in Nigeria are cutting back on purchases and abandoning customs. 

3. Fiscal policy and tax reform

The Tinubu administration also outlined plans to expand the tax base, boost the efficiency of tax collection, and enhance revenue generation, all without raising tax rates. According to Tinubu’s presidential campaign manifesto, he intends to deploy an expansionary fiscal policy where budgetary spending is no longer tied to the country’s yearly dollar-based oil revenues.

The president established a Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, former Fiscal Policy Partner and Africa Tax Leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). The committee includes experts from both the private and public sectors. The committee’s goal is to develop practical and cost-effective solutions to several key issues: the proliferation of revenue collection agencies, the high costs associated with revenue administration, the heavy compliance burden on ordinary taxpayers, the lack of coordination between fiscal and other economic policies at various government levels, and the poor accountability in the use of tax revenues.

However, Nigeria’s tax administration system has long suffered from inefficiencies, corruption, and poor compliance. Broadening the tax base will necessitate major improvements in tax administration and enforcement. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) could encounter difficulties if tax reforms are not implemented thoughtfully. There is a risk that higher tax burdens could hinder growth in this crucial sector.

Conclusion

President Tinubu’s manifesto is an 80-page document that outlined his plans for Nigeria and anchored his presidential campaign political messaging throughout the eventful electioneering season

The successful execution of these reforms will be critical to their success. While making sure that the advantages of the reforms are dispersed fairly, the administration will need to control immediate effects like inflation and rising living expenses.

 Maintaining public support, social stability, and the development of a more resilient and inclusive economy will all depend on striking a balance between these goals.

We urge the government to reconsider some of its current policies and look for creative ways to lessen the increasing suffering that Nigeria’s impoverished citizens must endure. Support for Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MSMEs), the agriculture sector, and the development of cottage industries nationwide must all be increased.