What Nigerians should expect in 2026

As 2026 approaches, it becomes clear that Nigerians are standing at a crossroads. The new tax regime coming into effect has left many uncertainties for Nigerians. Economically, politically, technologically, and even in all dealings of everyday life, change is imminent, whether for better or worse. The kind of change that happens, however, will be largely determined by policy choices and global forces. And of course, the response of the citizens will matter. In this article, I will discuss what Nigerians should expect in 2026, so if you are uncertain about how your life will change as a Nigerian in the new year, then this article is for you. 

1. The economy: Slower growth but some stability  

Having passed through some sharp economic turbulence these last several years, Nigeria is brimming with the promise of stabilizing by 2026. This stability is hoped to be achieved by adjusting currency volatility, high inflation, subsidy reform, and exchange rates. However, this progress will be modest and uneven.

The IMF predicts Nigeria’s GDP growth in 2026 to hover around 4.2%. But inflation remains a major concern: For 2026, the IMF puts inflation to reach around 37 %. 

What does this mean to the average Nigerian? A 4% growth means that the economy expands, but double-digit inflation means that household purchasing power will still struggle. In other words, more activity but also more pressure on costs.

Opportunities lie in areas including ICT (information & communications), financial services, and real estate, which look to show really strong performance potential, according to the World Bank. 

2. The new tax regime

One of the most significant events expected in 2026 will be the new tax regime. The federal government, under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is determined to increase Nigeria’s tax coverage and squeeze as much money from Nigerians through tax as it can.

Every Nigerian earning income above ₦800,000 per year will be taxed. That is about ₦67,000 per month. Identifications like National Identification Number (NIN) and Bank Verification Number (BVN) will be used to reduce tax evasion.

There is a tax on petroleum imports. It is expected that various taxes or levies will be introduced by the government.

How Nigerians will react to the new tax-driven system is unpredictable. It can lead to protest, unrest, or low economic activity. Unpredictable.

3. Currency, inflation, and purchasing power

One of the most significant influences on everyday life will be the cost of goods and how far one’s income stretches. High inflation expectations mean salaries may not keep pace with economic growth, which often means many Nigerians will feel poorer.

That said, more optimistic forecasts have also been made: for example, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria believed inflation would decline and the naira would appreciate under good conditions. 

What practical steps matter? For many Nigerians: save more if possible, have as many income streams as possible (side-gigs, remote work, digital skills), and be selective when it comes to expenses. For businesses, pricing strategies need to anticipate inflation and currency risk and must hedge accordingly.

4. Politics, governance, and state-level changes

By 2026, political dynamics in Nigeria will continue to shape all aspects of the economy. An interesting fact is that the federal government has stated that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is expected to be in control of 30 states by 2026 in Nigeria.

What this implies is that a larger part of federal policies would get reflected in state policies, making it easier for several reforms to be handled; however, it will raise questions about checks and balances.

Citizens benefit from increased push for actualization of policies (e.g., subsidies, currency, industry), which is a positive thing if such reforms work, but dangerous if accountability crumbles. Expect more emphasis on industrial policy, value-addition programs, and possibly a more visible push for localized economic empowerment.

The general elections are coming up in 2027. The real politicking will be in full swing in 2026. Lots of promises will be made.

5. Industry, manufacturing, and value addition

Value addition, as opposed to just exporting raw materials, is another area Nigeria is looking at in terms of a promising future. For example, very recently, there was a ban on exporting raw shea nuts aimed at stimulating domestic processing as a way of generating jobs. 

This will mean opportunities for 2026 entrepreneurs in manufacturing, midstream processing, local supply chains, and services that support these industries (logistics, warehousing, digital tools). If you are starting or contemplating repositioning, tracking the growth of “made in Nigeria” value chains is a smart bet.

On the flip side, manufacturing still contends with constraints like infrastructure deficits, power supply, and high cost of credit. As a worker or business owner, you will benefit by building around obstacles. This means shorter supply chains, local sourcing, automation where possible, and digital-first models.

6. Digital tech, remote work, and new career paths

The digital world is probably one of the brightest spots in Nigeria’s future. With a young population as well as the increasing networking capacity, these could be things that Nigerians capitalize on to grab a share of more gigs or build technology-enabled businesses while being inspired by global remote working trends in generations to come. Expect further uptake of remote work, digital freelancing, content creation, and tech startups.

For 2026, this means that developing digital skills (UX design, content creation, digital marketing, software tools) is increasingly worthwhile. Freelancers should hone their ability to deliver remotely, sell globally, and use digital tools (including AI) to increase output.

From the national perspective, sectors such as ICT and financial services are encouraging. The World Bank flagged these as key growth drivers. 

7. Household and everyday life impacts 

2026 would probably mean “consistent but cautious progress” to the average Nigerian household. Jobs may increase, digital incomes may multiply, services may improve, but these will also be accompanied by high costs of living, strain on the currency, and slower growth of real income. 

On the personal level, it will mean that allocating your money will matter much more. If you can, saving or earning in foreign currency is a cushion. Income diversification, like side projects, remote jobs, and internet services, might insulate you from inflation. Communities might increasingly rely on shared digital platforms, micro-entrepreneurship, and informal networks for income. 

In terms of infrastructure, more visible projects could be underfoot: roads, digital connectivity, and power sector interventions. They don’t always deliver in the short term, but 2026 could be the year when even latent projects translate into visible real improvements (if the policy remains consistent).

Risks and what to watch out for

Outlook is cautiously optimistic, but clear risks are lurking.

• New tax regime: The new tax regime is coming. NIN and BVN will likely be use to ensure everyone pays tax.
• Oil price vulnerability and external shocks: Nigeria still has an economy that depends on oil revenue. A fall in oil prices or a global demand shift could hit the economy badly.
• Inflation/food price shock: The projected inflation rate is high, which might cause the cost of living to run ahead of wage earnings. Food inflation may hit hardest.
• Infrastructure bottlenecks: Without improvements in power, transport, internet, and credit, growth may remain constrained, and benefits won’t reach many.
• Duty to the nation: As the political season gets into full blast towards the end of 2026, politicians will make promises to fool you, and many political antics and propaganda will occur.

Nigeria is a large and very diverse country. Conditions may progress in Lagos or Abuja, but states in rural areas may lag, which perpetuates discontent. Staying aware of macro-trends is useful, but also focus on those tangible actions like skill-building, income diversification, cost control, and local resilience.

What you can do to prepare and benefit

Here are actionable actions you can take now, so that when 2026 arrives, you are ready.

• Get yourself acquainted with the new tax regime and what is expected of you.
• Invest in digital skills (UX design, social media management, content creation, remote-work tools).
• Consider some post-traditional work income sources, such as freelancing, e-businesses, and digital services.
• Watch the inflation trends and the exchange rate, and try to earn or save in any currencies tied closely to that of the USD or platforms having global pricing. 
• Link your career or business with value-added sectors like manufacturing, processing, digital services, and local supply chains. 
• Keep abreast of developments in policy and infrastructure concerning your state/region. 
• Build resilience through networks: peer groups, online communities, informal business clusters. These often fill gaps when formal systems lag. 

Conclusion

2026 would be a year of gradual development in the Nigerian economy, but inflation will persist. Investing in skill-building, diversification of income, and alignment with emerging sectors would put you in a stronger place.